A Comparison Of 2050 Population Pyramids

In a previous post, I detailed the reasons why I don't fear China's rise. One of the reasons is that China's demographics did not necessarily support such fear. As an extension of the total number of people is China's population pyramid in 2050--i.e., how many people fall within certain age ranges at a given time. China's future pyramid shows that a decreasing number of workers will have to support an increasing number of retirees (an inverted pyramid). This is the downside to China's one-child policy. It's very near-sighted as well as being unpalatable from a human rights standpoint. The economic consequences of an inverted pyramid are generally rather severe.

China cannot even out its population pyramid with immigration like the US has done, simply because there are no places that have sufficient surplus people to make a big difference by immigrating to China. While the US baby boom generation was indeed a boom, immigration has stayed fairly steady as a percentage of our population. And since the US only has some 5% of the world's population, there are sufficient surpluses from other nations to make a big difference to us. Because of this, the US population pyramid will look good.

There are other countries with healthy population pyramids, the most notable of which for our purposes here is India. India should settle into a virtuous pyramid--almost straight up and down. This should moderate the inflation that she experiences, among other things.

Source: All of these graphics are generated by the Census Bureau, International Population Database. Check out the dynamic graphics that they have for the pyramids. It's really interesting to watch the progression over time!

Comments

[sally]

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[ME]

I CANT READ THE WRITING ON THE RIGHT OF EACH GRAPH!!!!!! WTF!!!È

[Daniel Schmelzer]

ME: I don't understand what you're talking about. Could you please elaborate, and not use all caps? Thanks!

[tiffany]

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[parvathy]

It could be more useful if you made the points more elaborate.

[Daniel Schmelzer]

This is a blog. Essay-length posts are pretty difficult to read in this format. That said, if you request an elaboration on any particular point raised, I would consider it.

[Erin Elizabeth< 3 =)]

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[T-Dawg*::..]

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[Steven]

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[Dominic Schmelzer]

Just to keep the conversation going - maybe Chris has a thing or two to say about the US hitting 300 million this year. Btw, this tip came from Mr. Mark Major:
http://nytimes.com/2006/01/13/national/13baby.html?ei=5094&en=965005cbf6337137&hp=&ex=1137214800&partner=homepage&pagewanted=print

--
Mark C. Major
*****************
"The Christian ideal has not been tried and found wanting;
it has been found difficult and left untried."
- G.K. Chesterton in What's Wrong With The World

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