In a recent article in Space News, Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX admits that "I’ve certainly spent more than I expected to spend. On Falcon I alone I’m unlikely to recoup my investment, but with Falcon V and Falcon I, together I think that I probably will."
As discussed in a previous article giving a very simple NPV model based roughly on the Falcon I development program, the rocket business as it is currently structured is a tough one. Delay on first flight is very costly, considering the discount rate that is applied to such a risky venture -- probably 20-25% per annum. In addition, by admitting that the business case for the Falcon I doesn't add up even with a 7-8 per annum flight rate (and implying that the case once did add up), we can guess that Musk figures on 35% or less gross margins on operations for the rocket.
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