Carried Away

Google Space

In this month's GQ, there's an article giving some background of the startup of Google.  Some of you may know my respect for Sergey Brin and Larry Page, the founders of Google, for using the rational and ethical Dutch auction process to bring Google public.  Also, they have given more than one nod to Warren Buffett, a student of Benjamin Graham, a hero of mine.  But my eye was caught by a passing mention of the Google founders' interest in commercial space launch.

[Eric Schmidt] found himself frequently occupied with grounding Larry and Sergey’s flights of fancy. There was the time the boys suggested having Google enter the business of low-cost space launchings. And the time Larry reportedly tried to ban telephones from a new Google office building.

I don't particularly like the way this is mentioned by the writer -- a "flight of fancy" rather than merely a difficult thing to do.   Have we lost all imagination in this country for working to set the old order on its head?  But of course I can see where space launch is well outside the core business of Google. ;-)

This gives us another picture on Larry Page's recently-announced involvement in the X-Prize Foundation, but also it demonstrates that there is something of a critical mass of serious independent iconoclasts interested in the problem of extreme U.S. launch costs.  It also heartens me to see this group skewing to my generation of young 30-something Gen X'ers without direct memory of the Apollo Program.  The money that this group potentially brings to the table is important, but I find the fact that these folks didn't earn the bulk of their money from working as a contractor for the government to be of special importance.  (NB:  As I recall, Brin's mother works at the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office here in the D.C. area.)

My mom might be interested in knowing that both Page and Brin went to Montessori schools.

India's population will pass China's by 2030

In a November entry, I presented a chart showing the prospective population growth of the India, China, Nigeria, and the United States through 2050, as projected in the U.S. Census Bureau International Database.  According to the database, India's population was expected to pass China's by about 2032.  However, new projections from the United Nations Population Division show this crossover occurring by 2030.

Projections for China's population continue to be revised downward rather quickly.  But what should we make of these changes and the impact on the Chinese economy and society?  Some have quipped that China will become old before it becomes rich.  Indeed, the UN projects the 2050 median age of China to be 44.8 years, while in comparison it projects the media age of the U.S. to be 41.1 years and India to be 38.7 years.

By 2050, the UN expects China's population to be falling by 0.35% per annum, and we can assume that the potential workforce will be falling faster than that rate.  Quite simply, this rate of population decline will feed directly into China's rate of economic growth.  This might not be a concern for China now, when its economy is expanding at a furious clip.  But we know that the kind of economic growth that China is experiencing now will not continue forever.  Eventually, the 1% per annum (or whatever) drag on China's economy relative to nowadays will be very painful.

Electric-gasoline hybrids gaining critical mass

In the past, I wondered whether electric-gasoline hybrid vehicles would ever gain critical mass.  However, as a Christian Science Monitor article points out, the car companies expect to sell some 200,000 hybrid vehicles this year.  This seems like critical mass.

It occurs to me that electric-gasoline hybrids are starting to make economic sense.  The hybrid add-on costs some $3,000 for cars, trucks, and SUVs -- a 1,500 gallon break-even point at $2/gallon.

In addition, the Christian Science Monitor article talks of the move to "plug-in hybrids," which have a battery that you can use for relatively short trips.  Plug in your car to the wall socket and the first 10 miles at 35 miles per hour is from your electrical grid rather than from gasoline.

Taken together, the move toward higher fuel efficiency and the move toward grid electrical power as opposed to gasoline seems to make economic sense.  But there are other reasons to buy plug-in hybrids.  I'm not much of a believer in the environmental benefits of the hybrids, but I can easily see the geopolitical benefits.   Venezuela, the Middle East, and Russia are all potential hot spots.

Nice Bigelow Space Station Pictures

Popular Science has a cover article about Bigelow Aerospace in this month's magazine.  The article doesn't give much new information, but does have some great pictures.  Check out the slide shows.

Bigelow Aerospace has prepared some really great photos and a lot of fantastic artwork to communicate its plans.  Perhaps in the future, the company's web site will take on a more finished professional look to highlight these pictures and artwork.

The following rendering is of a single Nautilus module, with volume of about 17,000 cubic feet from the outside dimensions.  I guess that would be very roughly 11,000 cubic feet internal volume, a little more than twice the volume of my Washington condo apartment.  This is plenty of living space for one or two people accustomed to the American style of living, so long as some privacy is afforded by walls and maintenance areas (trash room, water system, etc.) are kept to a minimum.

Wow! SpaceX Planning Saturn V-Class Engine

Wow!

SpaceX has an update on its site, which is exceedingly interesting.  If I read the update correctly (and this is suspect), Elon Musk, the CEO of the company, is announcing that SpaceX is planning development of an engine of the same size class as the Saturn V engine, the enormous F-1.  This is a "few" years down the road, but...

Please note that the F-1 is the second larget production rocket engine ever built -- a teeth rattler in a class above normal teeth rattlers.  Even if you wanted to develop such an engine, the wisdom of doing so is suspect, and telling others that you are planning such a thing will get you admitted to an asylum.  So I'm sitting here chuckling at Musk's audacity at planning development of such an enormous engine in the private sector.

Fast Company -- Hondas in Space

Fast Company has a very good article about the progress of SpaceX as it develops its Falcon line of rockets.  Check it out.

A ton of facts are given in the article that are useful in figuring out what SpaceX is doing.  It has 88 employees, which I guess gives the company a "burn rate" of about $10 - 20 million per annum -- very sustainable.   Musk has spent over $50 million on the development of the Falcon I and Falcon V rockets.  Musk has a fortune of approximately $328 million, some of which is tied up in SpaceX and at least one other space company.  Musk is willing to spend up to $100 million for this project and perhaps higher, depending on the circumstances.  Lastly, SpaceX is contemplating development of a BFR.  I'm dying to know its weight class.

Lots of fun to contemplate.