Carried Away: U.S. Government Spending As a Percentage of GDP -- Updated

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U.S. Government Spending As a Percentage of GDP -- Updated

Updates and supersedes October, 2003 entry. (This entry still consistently receives the most hits of any entry on this blog.)

I have found that one of the most useful ways of looking at the government's role in society is by examining how much the government spends as a relation to the economy, measured most often by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). For the United States, we calculate this on either or both the national and state/local levels using Table 1.1.5 and Tables 3.1 through 3.3 in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Here is the historical information. Federal subsidies for state/local programs (e.g. block grants for welfare programs) are counted as spending at the federal level.

Click on the following thumbnail for a clearer view.

Here is the underlying Excel file, released under the Creative Commons Share and Share Alike License. I will try to update this file from time to time as the data is released.

It appears that the government has turned the corner on spending and the deficit is now shrinking as a percentage of the economy. I would like to see a continual gradual reduction in federal spending to pre-Cold War levels.

Note: Currently, my calculations run off of total receipts and total expenditures, whereas my previous expenditures ran off of current receipts and current expenditures. The instances where this makes a big difference is during war time. See, for instance, World War II and Vietnam.

Posted by Daniel Schmelzer on April 07, 2005 at 02:44 PM in Economics, Politics | Permalink

Comments

I think that this is a very serious problem and we need to get Bush out of office because he has greatly contributed to our government Debt.

Posted by: Dixie Normous | April 11, 2005 at 11:28 AM

Any updates to the data in your Excel file? This is beautiful work, and I'll update it myself if I can, just wanted to see if you've worked on it lately before I put in the time....

Posted by: James W. Conroy, Ph.D. | November 09, 2007 at 07:35 AM

This helps explain the frivolity of trying to work for smaller government. Do you think that government spending as a % of GDP is a close approximation of the % of adults who rely on the government for income? How would anyone for "small government" get elected by a population somehwere around 30% dependent on government spending?

Posted by: Doug | July 31, 2008 at 04:27 PM

This is superb! Could you plesae update it for the years through 2008? Your knowledge of the algorithms is better than one of us possibly being inconsistent.

Posted by: Sam Coppock CPA | August 08, 2009 at 05:50 PM

Hate to say it, but this graph is not correct, through no fault Daniel's. I set out to update the graph through 2010, and discovered that for some reason, the "Total Expenditures" line is either blank (which Daniel noticed) during early years, or *miscalculated* (which Daniel did not notice) for subsequent years on the actual BEA table.

Here's a link to the corrected spreadsheet with graph, through 2010.

http://neil.verplank.org/usspend/us_govt_spending_and_taxation_in_relation_to_gdp2.xls

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