The Decatur [Alabama] Daily News has a good and lengthy article about the proposed Boeing/Lockheed-Martin government launch monopoly. In pertinent part, Boeing makes the argument that SpaceX cannot compete in government EELV-class payloads until it launches successfully, even though it has already successfully competed for a classified EELV-class contract.
Boeing corporate spokesman Dan Beck said Friday the lawsuit was meritless.
"SpaceX? They've yet to even launch one of these rockets," Beck said.
The
joint venture, United Launch Alliance [ULA], would combine production of
Boeing's Delta rocket series and Lockheed's Atlas series at the Decatur
plant.
"It's going to
take some time to test and validate (competitive SpaceX systems). In
the meantime," Beck said, "the Air Force, NASA and National
Reconnaissance Office need to be able to launch their payloads."
This argument has its weaknesses. For one, Boeing is implying that the government gave the classified contract to SpaceX inappropriately because SpaceX's systems haven't been validated through successful launches. Also, SpaceX will have validated its system through a launch in several weeks (or not, as the fates dictate), giving SpaceX perhaps more credibility to compete than it deserves once that happens. Lastly, this argument can be proven absurd, in that Lockheed-Martin and Boeing EELV hardware and services were purchased and paid for by the government before many systems were validated.
An interesting possibility is that a faction in the Air Force and associated intelligence community is using SpaceX as a fingerprint-free way to scuttle the formation of the Boeing/Lockheed-Martin launch monopoly. SpaceX could be cheap and convenient, since the classified launch contract is a mere $27 million and is payable only on the supposed completion of services in 2007. Who knows, that faction might even be running the show...
First proposed by the Air Force, the ULA has hit several setbacks. According to the Wall Street Journal,
citing anonymous sources, a change in Air Force leadership resulted in
closer scrutiny of the project.
I wonder if this faction has much political backing. The launch business is a cesspool of parochial interests trumping good policy. By way of illustration, the article states that the congressman for Huntsville, Alabama, Bud Cramer (D), was part of the negotiations of forming the government launch monopoly. I don't blame Cramer for playing the game, because he was just playing by the rules, perverse as they are.
There are all sorts of wrinkles to this story. For instance, it may be less in Lockheed-Martin's interest than in Boeing's that the government launch monopoly is formed. If the Air Force decided to no longer fund one of the two EELV rocket families, Boeing's Delta IV likely would be the one left out in the cold.
Given this complex situation, Elon Musk is being aggressive, which likely will cover for any small mistakes that he makes.
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